Saturday 31 December 2022

Good and bad tipping points

It has been a difficult year. Just when we thought we were past the worst with Covid, we get the war in Ukraine with devastating impacts on the supply of fuel, grain and other food goods. 

Climate change does not let up. Last year looks to be the warmest on record for the UK and in July the record for highest temperature in the UK was topped by an alarming 1.6°C [1]. We also had drought with river flows at record lows [2]. Worldwide, 2022 saw catastrophic floods in Pakistan [3], record forest fires across Europe [4], and extraordinarily sudden cold across large parts of North America (a drop of 23°C in one hour in Cheyenne, Wyoming) [5].

It reminds us of the danger of climate tipping points. Tipping points are moments when some part of the climate system changes in such a massive way that there’s no going back. Apparently there are several that may have already happened: melting ice sheets, the death of coral reefs, melting permafrost releasing methane and the loss of sea ice in the Barents Sea [6].

These tipping points are dangerous. However, tipping points can trigger changes for the good too. The war in Ukraine has shown how easy it is to weaponise supply of fossil fuels [7], triggering a rapid increase in investment in renewable energy worldwide. For the same reason we have seen much more action on energy efficiency, here and across Europe [8]. People are turning down thermostats and putting on more clothes to reduce bills [9]. (See also TC members tips). Solar PV installers are struggling to keep up with a spike in orders [10], and demand for heat pumps, which use electricity to heat buildings instead of gas, has also surged [11].

When we are close to a tipping point, little nudges can produce large changes in the way we think, feel and do things.

Transition Cambridge continues to nudge:

  • More and more repair cafes are run each year, with new communities joining in the movement. This year the Cambridge Carbon Footprint/TC collaboration has helped spread the skills to run repair cafes outside the county, in Peterborough, Norwich and Sawbridgeworth. Repair cafes reduce emissions and the use of new materials, save money and build resilience into communities.
  • The energy group runs meetings monthly on energy topics from getting a heat pump to how to deal with building contractors to the facts behind renewable energy tariffs. We continue to update and expand the advice pages.
  • Empty Common Community Garden thrives, now with a new meeting hut which is available for community events as well as the garden volunteers. ECCG, and other gardens like it, help us to understand and get involved with growing and harvesting food. 
  • The book group is also thriving, promoting discussion about environment, climate and social justice related books, both fact and fiction, to inspire and enthuse us into action. 
  • Meg’s permaculture design for Transition Cambridge has been the inspiration for the Web of Resilience website, linking together organisations across Cambridgeshire working on sustainability in all guises.

Of course we are only one of many organisations acting for the environment and for people, which are needed more than ever now because of the cost of living crisis. Cambridge Sustainable Food does extraordinary work running food hubs where struggling households can access free food with no questions asked. The food is supplied by other organisations such as the volunteer growers at CoFarm . Also for people who are struggling to keep warm at home there are warm spaces at community centres across the city, some of them listed here.

The common theme I see across all these activities is sharing - knowledge, skills and stuff - and hence building community resilience. Perhaps 2023 will be the year we tip into a new culture of working together, pooling resources and living sustainability.


Happy New Year!


[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63244353

[2] https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/forecasts/uk-might-still-be-in-drought-2023-spring-water-weather.html

[3] https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-floods-pakistan-2022

[4] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_6465

[5] https://www.newsweek.com/flash-freeze-hits-us-temperature-plunges-42-less-one-hour-1769021

[6] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds

[7] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/15/gas-blackmail-how-putins-weaponised-energy-supplies-are-hurting-europe

[8] https://www.iea.org/news/how-the-european-union-can-avoid-natural-gas-shortages-in-2023

[9] https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/articles-reports/2022/11/07/how-are-public-reducing-their-household-energy-use

[10] https://www.fmb.org.uk/homepicks/solar-panels/solar-panel-installation-time/

[11] https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/news/heat-pumps-demand-increases


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